Tag Archive for north carolina presidential predictions 2012

North Carolina Remains “Leans Romney”

September 21, 2012 admin Political Media Analysis No comments

A new poll shows very good news for Obama in North Carolina. A High Point University survey shows Obama up 4% in the Tar Heel state, 48-44%. Polls in North Carolina have been all over the place as of late, ranging from Obama up 4% to Romney up 10%. The model obviously believes the race is somewhere in between, though it continues to give Mitt Romney the edge. We’ll have to wait and see if another poll confirms the positive movement for Obama in NC. High Point had Romney up 3% about three weeks ago, so this is roughly a 7% swing toward Obama during that time. North Carolina, at the moment, still seems to be a stretch for Obama as he’s always trailed in the model, though the state has often been considered a “Toss-Up.”

North Carolina Model: Romney 50.8% – Obama 48.0%

Margin: Romney +2.8%

Previous Margin: Romney +3.1%

State Rating: Remains “Leans Romney“

North Carolina Model Has Been Static For Weeks

September 10, 2012 admin Political Media Analysis No comments

There’s been a whole lotta money spent in North Carolina over the last few months, but it hasn’t moved the needle much at all. Even with the DNC Convention in Charlotte last week, Obama’s yet to see a bounce in the model there. Instead, the North Carolina model’s been essentially unchanged for the last month or so. A new PPP survey shows Obama up 1%, comparable to the tied race they had a week ago following the RNC Convention. But, this still gives Obama little movement as PPP had him up 3% a month ago. North Carolina remains a nail biter, that said, Romney’s always led in the model, even if the state remains a Toss-Up. I wouldn’t say this state is a stretch for the Obama campaign, but it certainly is a tough get.

North Carolina Model: Romney 50.3% – Obama 48.5%

Margin: Romney +1.8%

Previous Margin: Romney +1.6%

State Rating: Remains a “Toss-Up”

North Carolina Unchanged From Last Week

September 3, 2012 admin Political Media Analysis No comments

There’s also yet to be a bounce in the North Carolina model for Mitt Romney. PPP was out in the field the weekend after the convention and did show Romney picked up a few points from his 3% deficit in PPP’s last poll, but they still had the race tied at 48% a piece. Elon University also got into the polling field and found Romney up 4%, 47-43%. Romney’s always led in North Carolina, but it’s been within the “Toss-Up” category for almost two months now and hasn’t budged much during that time. The last five NC models have shown a consistent race: Romney: +1.5, +2.4%, +1.5%, +1.9%, now +1.9% again. This state remains one to watch.

North Carolina Model: Romney 50.3%  - Obama 48.4%

Margin: Romney +1.9%

Previous Margin: Romney +1.9%

State Rating: Remains a “Toss-Up”