Credit: Gage Skidmore

Sun. GOP NH Model: Trump Looking a Good Bet; 2nd Place Wide Open

Sunday Highlights: Donald Trump looks better by the day to win the GOP New Hampshire primary. Meanwhile, 2nd place is as wide open as ever as four candidates could place anywhere from 2nd-5th. Today’s Model (w/changes from Yesterday’s Model in ()). Trump 32.3% (-1.3%) Rubio 15.9% (+0.1%) Kasich 12.8% (+0.4%) Cruz 12.6% (+0.1%) Bush 10.0% (+0.5%) Christie 5.3% (–) Fiorina 4.8% (+0.4%) Carson 3.6% (–) Donald Trump Trump is still…

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Sunday NH Dem Model: Clinton Closes in a Bit

Overall, it was a better day of data for Clinton. While not all pollsters are showing a closer race, it seems that the Sanders 20%+ blowout option is getting more unlikely by the day. On the other end of the spectrum, I still don’t think it’s there yet, but the Clinton within 10% option is becoming more of a possibility. Today’s Model, with changes from yesterday in (): Sanders 55.3%…

Credit: Michael Vardon

Sat. NH GOP Model: Trump Still Looks Good; Fight for 2nd Looks Real

Headlines: One day closer to the primary, and Donald Trump is still looking like the likely victory in New Hampshire. And, is it possible that someone other than Rubio wins 2nd? With another day of data in, it looks like Rubio’s post-Iowa surge may have lasted for about 72 hours. In New Hampshire, there are normally two shifts to the race: one that happens in the first 72 hours or…


Sat. Dem Model Stable – Sanders Still Heavily Favored

It’s a tale of data noise in the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire. On one hand, you have pollsters showing it a 9-13% race. On the other end, you have some showing it to be a 20-30% race. As Iowa neared, the data, to me, became quite clear. While there were a few pollsters out there who showed big Clinton leads and even one with a big Sanders lead, the…


Friday NH GOP Model Update: Rubio Rising; Trump Still Likely to Win

With a slew of new data coming in, I have my first post-Iowa GOP Model update in for New Hampshire. Highlights: Trump still looking pretty good to win Tuesday. If anyone is to catch him, it looks to be Rubio, though still seems unlikely. Today’s Model: Trump 33.3% Rubio 15.8% Cruz 13.2% Kasich 12.2% Bush 9.4% Christie 5.7% Fiorina 4.6% Carson 3.9% Analysis Trump is still looking pretty good. It’s…


NH Dem Model: Did Iowa Change Anything in the Granite State?

As expected, a virtual tie in Iowa may not have changed things much after all in New Hampshire. A few highlights of what the data are looking like: The best news for Clinton is the UMassLowell tracking poll. They’ve shown a consistent closing in the race over the last few days, from a 33% margin pre-Iowa to a 15% margin today. A few more days, and could Clinton catch up?…


What to make of last night…and where the race goes from here

Can everyone be a winner? Well, not quite, but four of the five top candidates can leave Iowa with a story that’ll be just fine for them — and even the fifth may still be okay. Some thoughts on the night, and where the candidates go from here: Clinton: Though much closer than she wanted, Clinton still leaves Iowa with a win or a tie, whatever language you want to…


(Final) Final Iowa Models

With some new data in — primarily the Q poll, as well as, to a lesser degree, the Emerson poll — a quick update on the numbers. Dem: Clinton 47.0% Sanders 44.8% O’Malley 4.6% —————————————– W/O’Malley votes moved: Clinton 48.0% Sanders 46.8% O’Malley 1.6% Undecided 3.6% Summary: There were only minor shifts to the numbers today. The Emerson and Q polls were not much different from their previous polls. Clinton…


The Volatility That Remains Until the End

We’re only hours away from finally being there! It’s Caucus Day, and before a blizzard hits the state, a few hundred thousand Iowans are going to head out and share their thoughts with their friends, neighbors and communities. Yesterday, I posted the final Iowa Models. From a data perspective, the good money going into tonight is that the Democratic race is quite close, but Clinton ‘likely’ has a small edge….