Make no bones about it. Tom Cotton(R) remains the favorite in the Arkansas race. But, a Pryor victory is certainly within the realm of possibilities. Both candidates have bad news. Neither has much good news. Tom Cotton keeps falling from his peaks a few weeks ago. He’s now stuck below 46% in the model. Pryor’s (D) numbers look even worse as he’s stuck below 43%, not good for an incumbent in a GOP-leaning state, at least at the federal level. But, Pryor’s proven far more energetic than Cotton in the closing weeks. Couple Bill Clinton with Pryor’s domination in debating a rather bland Cotton and the Democrat still has a fighting chance.
Now, many fundamentals remain against Pryor. In many ways, the remaining group of voters should break against him, based on historic dynamics and current figures of who remains out there. But, Pryor is well-liked in the state, other than his affiliation with the President’s party. Additionally, he has plenty of money to close this race and appears far more comfortable on the campaign trail.
For now, Cotton still has the advantage. He’s closing by tying Pryor to Obama’s decisions around ISIS and even Ebola. Will that work? Maybe, but it’s not the strongest close with undecided voters. Meanwhile, Pryor keeps trying to sell himself as a moderate Arkansas guy. If this type of data hold, this race may take awhile to count on election night. In the last update, Cotton was up 4.0%. Now, it’s dropped to 3.0%. If that trend continues, this race will certainly be worth watching until the end, though it remains Cotton’s to lose.