Credit: Tom Arthur

AZ and AR Preview: Could Dems Put AZ in Play?

My second batch of general election preview states are a bit more interesting than the first — at least the state of Arizona is. AZ President For over a decade now, Democrats have talked about turning Arizona into a Purple State. At the state level, it hasn’t been in the slightest as GOP Governors have dominated the state ever since Janet Napolitano became the Secretary of Homeland Security and Jan…

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Credit: Gage Skidmore

AL and AK Preview: Still GOP Safe States

The ‘initial’ general election map is in the works! As the Primary calendar winds down, over the next few weeks, I’ll be putting together what will be the ‘starting point’ map for this year’s General Election. The Senate and Governor maps are already up and running. But now it’s time to start building the Presidential Map! It’s true that it’s ‘way’ too early for any such thing to be a…

North Carolina

NC Changes: Gov Moves to “Leans Dem”; Senate to “Toss-Up”

To quote the fictional Marty Huggins from the 2012 film The Campaign, “It’s a mess.” In the present sense, I’m talking about North Carolina politics. Today, GOP Governor Pat McCrory double downed on his support of HB2 by suing the federal government on behalf of the state. According to a recent PPP poll, the bill is not all that popular, with 36% in support and 45% opposed. Importantly, in a Purple…


Acela Primary Preview: A Good Night for Clinton Appears in Store

While the Democratic night appears to be a bit more competitive than the GOP one, Hillary Clinton should continue her march toward the Democratic nomination tonight, likely netting more delegates and expanding her pledged delegate lead. There’s not a lot of good data in these states, but here’s what we may be able to expect, based on the data we have, as well as comps from this cycle: Connecticut: 55 Pledged…


The Acela Primary: Trump’s Big Night?

Donald Trump is likely to pick up as many delegates tonight as he did in New York last week – if not many more. Tonight’s contests take us up on down the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, from the small states of Rhode Island and Delaware to the medium-batched delegate contests of Connecticut and Maryland. Then there’s Pennsylvania – a big state with a tiny haul of bound delegates, based on party rules….


Governor Map Updates: WV Moves from “Leans GOP” to “Toss-Up”

As the primary season gets long in the tooth, I’ve been spending more and more time starting to build some Models for the fall. The Governor races are still pretty volatile as a lot of candidates have yet to be chosen. Therefore, most of the contest categorizations remain the same today, but I am moving one race, West Virginia, into the Toss-Up category. Some discussion of that, as well as…

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Data Talk Episode 5: California GOP Delegate Discussion

Here’s an early breakdown of things to think about in the California GOP primary coming up at the end of the cycle. It’s a big batch of delegates — the most remaining — with some winner-take-all dynamics that will have major impacts on the race.

North Carolina

Changes in Senate Predictions: WI, OH, PA, and NC

The presidential primaries are all the rage these days, but it’s time for an update to the Senate prediction map. I’m shifting the categorizations of four races today. Overall, all changes today imply tighter races. Wisconsin: From Likely Dem to Leans Dem Things are getting closer in the Badger state as two old rivals face off again this year. Long-time Senator Russ Feingold (D) lost his seat in the 2010 GOP…

Credit: Tom Arthur

April Delegate Preview

April is upon us. The pace of the primary process has slowed. Wisconsin is the only major contest before the middle of the month, though the calendar is full with Mid-Atlantic and New England states in the back half. What I want to do today is preview the April delegate map. This is meant less as a forecast but more as a dissection of what to look for, how the…