Acela Primary Preview: A Good Night for Clinton Appears in Store

While the Democratic night appears to be a bit more competitive than the GOP one, Hillary Clinton should continue her march toward the Democratic nomination tonight, likely netting more delegates and expanding her pledged delegate lead. There’s not a lot of good data in these states, but here’s what we may be able to expect, based on the data we have, as well as comps from this cycle: Connecticut: 55 Pledged…

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The Acela Primary: Trump’s Big Night?

Donald Trump is likely to pick up as many delegates tonight as he did in New York last week – if not many more. Tonight’s contests take us up on down the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, from the small states of Rhode Island and Delaware to the medium-batched delegate contests of Connecticut and Maryland. Then there’s Pennsylvania – a big state with a tiny haul of bound delegates, based on party rules….


Governor Map Updates: WV Moves from “Leans GOP” to “Toss-Up”

As the primary season gets long in the tooth, I’ve been spending more and more time starting to build some Models for the fall. The Governor races are still pretty volatile as a lot of candidates have yet to be chosen. Therefore, most of the contest categorizations remain the same today, but I am moving one race, West Virginia, into the Toss-Up category. Some discussion of that, as well as…

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Data Talk Episode 5: California GOP Delegate Discussion

Here’s an early breakdown of things to think about in the California GOP primary coming up at the end of the cycle. It’s a big batch of delegates — the most remaining — with some winner-take-all dynamics that will have major impacts on the race.

North Carolina

Changes in Senate Predictions: WI, OH, PA, and NC

The presidential primaries are all the rage these days, but it’s time for an update to the Senate prediction map. I’m shifting the categorizations of four races today. Overall, all changes today imply tighter races. Wisconsin: From Likely Dem to Leans Dem Things are getting closer in the Badger state as two old rivals face off again this year. Long-time Senator Russ Feingold (D) lost his seat in the 2010 GOP…

Credit: Tom Arthur

April Delegate Preview

April is upon us. The pace of the primary process has slowed. Wisconsin is the only major contest before the middle of the month, though the calendar is full with Mid-Atlantic and New England states in the back half. What I want to do today is preview the April delegate map. This is meant less as a forecast but more as a dissection of what to look for, how the…


Saturday Democratic Caucus Preview: Go West!

We’ve got a trifecta of Democratic Caucuses in store tomorrow — all in the West: Washington, Alaska and Hawai’i. While the SEC states were likely to be some of Clinton’s best of the cycle, these states are likely to be some of Sanders’ best this cycle. As always with Caucuses, we have little to no polling data. But, there are actually some similarities between Sanders’ performance in Caucuses this cycle…

Credit: Tom Arthur

Arizona, Idaho and Utah Previews

If it’s Tuesday, it’s election day! Tomorrow, there are races in three Western states: Arizona (Primaries), Idaho (Dem Caucus) and Utah (Caucuses). We have little to no solid, recent data in many of these states, but here’s what to look for: Arizona: Primary GOP: 58 Delegates – Winner-Take-All The biggest prize of the night is certainly Arizona. While Utah ‘might’ become a Winner-Take-All situation – more on that in a…

North Carolina

An OH and NC Geographic Breakdown: What to Look For

I wanted to offer a quick breakdown of what to look for tonight, geographically, from OH and NC. The winner of Kasich/Trump in Ohio, Trump/Cruz in North Carolina and Clinton/Sanders will likely be decided by the following: Ohio: Kasich: Though most of the polling is close in Ohio, on paper, John Kasich is still favored by a few points going into tonight. Throw in the home state advantage, and he…