Texas and Utah Models ending as Likely Trump

Credit: Tom Arthur

Texas and Utah have certainly received more attention than normal for a Presidential cycle. Trump’s unpopularity with the LDS community, coupled with the entrance of Independent Evan McMullin, have made Utah an odd three-way race. Meanwhile, Trump’s low standing in Texas made that race appear rather close in mid-October.

But, those dynamics seem to be fading a bit as the race closes. To give you a bit more sense of some of the potential fluctuation, I’m also offering some notes (in () and bullet statements) on closing momentum, as well as other potential issues in the data.

Texas Model

Trump 49.4% (+2.0%) (And climbing at the end).

Clinton 40.9% (+0.1%) (Seems stuck in low-40s).

  • The Likely Model bands are now playing in the Trump +6 to +7.5% range, but the Fundamentals band pulls this up to Trump +8.5%.
  • The closing momentum here also seems to be favoring Trump. In recent data, the Models are accelerating more toward a Trump +10% figure. Essentially, the Models are showing that Clinton may be peaking in the low-40s while the rest of the electorate — in a very GOP-leaning state — is coming home to their candidate a bit. Thus, Clinton appears to have already locked in her base while reluctant GOP-leaning voters may be coming home to Trump. There’s still a decent chunk of the electorate unassigned to a major-party candidate here, which keeps the margin a bit in flux, but I don’t see any indication that this one is really in play.
  • It’s thus ending as Likely Trump.

Utah Model 

  • High volatility here; lack of quality data

Trump 34.9% (+2.7%) (And climbing at the end).

McMullin 25.5% (+0.7%) (May be fading at the end).

Clinton 25.2% (-0.8%) (May be climbing into 2nd at the end, despite the top-line)

  • Don’t overly analyze that top-line; there are a lot of moving parts here.
  • While this one is certainly worth watching Tuesday, it does look like McMullin may actually be ebbing a bit in the closing days — this is pretty standard for 3rd parties, as voters come home to a major-party candidate.
  • In Utah, that still likely means a benefit for Trump, as this state votes about 2:1 GOP in a given year.
  • Some of the most recent data imply Clinton may be pulling into 2nd place and perhaps getting into the 30s, especially if McMullin ends up fading back into the mid-to-low-20s. Trump is climbing more toward the upper-30s as McMullin’s data points ‘might’ be receding a bit.
  • Simply put, we’ve not seen a dynamic like this in modern Utah data, so that keeps things interesting. But, yes, I’d default to a notion that the GOP-candidate will get that break a bit, and the third-party candidate will fade a tad in such a state. Beyond that, the margins are pretty iffy.
  • In total, I’m currently ending this one as Likely Trump.

TX: NBC/WSJ/Marist (11.01); Emerson (11.01); KTVT (10.29); Austin American-Statesman (10.24); Texas Tribune/YouGov (10.23); CBS News/YouGov (10.21); Univ. of Houston (10.15); SurveyUSA (10.12); CBS 11 (10.01).

UT: Y2 (11.03); Emerson (11.02); Monmouth (11.02); Gravis (10.31); Rasmussen (10.31; 10.24); Dan Jones (10.27); Emerson (10.19); Utah Policy/Dan Jones (10.18); Rasmussen (10.16); CBS/YouGov (10.14); Monmouth (10.12); Y2 Analytics/Desert News (10.11).

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