OH ends as a Toss-Up; VA Likely Clinton

Credit: Tom Arthur

Four Models left to post for 2016. Here are the first two:

Ohio Model

Trump 45.9% 

Clinton 45.3%

  • I still think Hillary Clinton could very well win here. That said, the above formula, as always, is the Fundamentals formula. In this case, the above figure actually breaks more of those reluctant Democrats into Clinton’s camp. Trump’s actually up a bit more in all of the non-fundamentals Likely Model Bands, with margins from 1 to 3%. This has always looked like one of his better Toss-Up states, but it’s still a Toss-Up because Clinton is very much within range.
  • Things to watch: What’s Trump’s margins in the Southeastern part of the state, as well as the Mahoning Valley? Dems used to carry this part of the state, but Trump could not only win these regions but win them by a bit. Then the question is: does he still win the Cincy and Columbus suburbs by healthy margins? If those voters come home to him, he likely won’t lose the state. If they don’t, his margins in the Southeast, Northwest and elsewhere may disappear. For Clinton, she needs Cuyahoga County to come out, as well as high turnout  in Columbus/Franklin County.

Virginia Model

Clinton 47.7%

Trump 42.0%

  • Still not seeing anything here that makes me think any surprises are in the cards. Ends as Likely Clinton.

Polls in Current Models:

OH: Columbus Dispatch (11.05); CBS/YouGov (11.04); TargetSmart/William&Mary (11.03); Remington (11.02; via Pollster); Quinnipiac (11.01; 10.16); CNN (10.15); NBC/WSJ/Marist (10.12); Emerson (11.05; 10.2710.12); Baldwin Wallace (10.07); CBS/YouGov (10.07); PPP (10.06); TargetSmart/William&Mary (10.06).

VA: PPP (11.04); Gravis (11.04); Roanoke (11.01); Hampton (10.30); Winthrop (10.30); WaPo (10.27) Quinnipiac (10.26); CNU (10.26); Remington (11.02, via HuffPo; 10.30; 10.22; via RCP); CNU (10.19); CNU (10.14); Emerson (10.3010.12; via RCP); Roanoke (10.06).

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