NV Pres ends on Toss-Up/Leans Clinton line; NV Sen data are a mess

As per usual, the Nevada data are pretty messy:

Models

President

Clinton 47.4% (+0.5%)

Trump 44.3% (+1.3%)

  • This one is on the line between a Toss-Up and Leans Clinton. Because of the data volatility, I’ll err on the side of considering it a Toss-Up. The non-fundamentals bands are why: they are playing in the Clinton +0.5% to +4.0% range.  Simply, the data are pretty noisy.
  • Certainly, if you were to push me to forecast any of my currents Toss-Ups, this would still be the most likely that goes to Clinton. At the moment, Trump needs this state as an upset if the 270 map is to remain viable, barring an utter shock in a state like Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Senate

w/Fundamentals formula:

Cortez Masto 46.1% (+0.3%)

Heck 45.8% (+0.7%)

w/o Fundamentals formula:

Heck 45.8%

Cortez Masto 44.5%

  • Talk about a mess. The non-fundamentals Likely Model bands have this anywhere from Heck +4% to Cortez Masto +3%. Eessshhh.
  • Dems feel pretty good based on early vote turnout; that said, I’ve learned over the years that it’s often misinterpreted and over analyzed, as there can be many other dynamics going on.
  • Simply put, I consider this a Toss-Up until the end because of the data volatility, coupled with the overall findings in the data of a race that may still be close.

Polls in Current Model:

Gravis (11.06); Emerson (11.05); PPP (11.01); JMC Analytics (11.01); CNN (11.01); Emerson (10.27; via RCP); Gravis (10.25); NBC/WSJ/Marist (10.24); LVRJ (10.23); KTNV/Rasmussen (10.22); Remington (10.22; via HuffPo); Monmouth (10.17); CNN (10.15); CBS/YouGov (10.14); JMC Analytics (10.13); PPP (10.11).

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