NV, NV Sen + NH Sen Holding as Toss-Ups; NH Likely Clinton; VA Leans Clinton

There are no major changes to the NH, NV, or VA Models today. All of these races appear pretty stable, some of them being a flip of the coin:

Nevada:

President:

W/Fundamentals Band:

Clinton 44.1% (+1.0%)

Trump 43.0% (+0.3%)

W/o Fundamentals Band:

Trump 42.3% (+0.3%)

Clinton 42.0% (+1.2%)

  • Nevada remains such a flip of a coin. Clinton’s numbers have certainly improved here over the last week or so, but it remains a state that’s anyone’s guess. If Nevada breaks toward its more blue-leaning roots with high turnout in Vegas, Clinton pulls ahead in the Model by a point or so. If those historic breaks don’t apply and Trump performs as expected, he is ever so narrowly ahead. But, again, both formulas are well within the Toss-Up range. This one may remain competitive until the end, especially as Trump needs to win here to make it to 270.

Senate:

W/Fundamentals Band

Heck 44.4% (-0.6%)

Cortez Masto 43.4% (-0.6%)

  • There’s been no change to the margin here. Without that fundamental break, Heck’s lead climbs to 2.9%. Again, both formulas are within the Toss-Up category, but Heck still has a very good chance here as he’s running 2-3% ahead of Trump’s numbers. And, though his leads are narrow and well within Toss-Up figures, he is ahead in all Likely Model bands.

New Hampshire:

President:

Clinton 46.7% (+1.3%)

Trump 40.1% (+0.7%)

  • No major changes to the race here as both candidates are now consolidating their bases a bit. Clinton is now over 46% in a Dem friendly state, and Trump is just now getting to 40%. The state remains “Likely Clinton,” and it may not get a lot of attention in the closing month unless something fundamentally changes here.

Senate:

W/Fundamentals Band:

Hassan 47.6% (+1.0%)

Ayotte 47.1% (+1.7%)

W/o Fundamentals Band:

Ayotte 47.2%

Hassan 46.5%

  • While the Presidential contest is showing no signs of being truly competitive, the Senate race sure is. Depending on that turnout break, Ayotte or Hassan could be leading. In many ways, New Hampshire is actually a state I’m more inclined to believe the w/o Fundamentals band a bit more as, with its independent minded streak, voters don’t always vote in expected ways. But, whether one candidate is up a point or the other, this one may remain anyone’s guess until the results come in.

Virginia:

Clinton 46.7% (+0.6%)

Trump 42.0% (+1.2%)

  • Trump is gaining a hair here as he seems to be consolidating his base in Southern Virginia. The Model is thus running a bit closer than many polls. Pence has two stops here before and after the state as the campaign is still desperate to expand the map. But that would certainly be a tough hurdle as we’re now down to about 5 weeks and this one hasn’t been a Toss-Up all cycle.
  • Needless to say, the state remains “Leans Clinton.”

Polls in Current Models:

NV: Suffolk (9.29); UPI (9.25); Fox News (9.20); Rasmussen (9.18); Reuters/Ipsos (9.22; via Pollster; 9.15);Insights West (9.14); Monmouth (9/13); NBC/WSJ/Marist (9/08); PPP (9/07); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (9/01; Pres Only).

NH: MassINC/WBUR (9.29); ARG (9.25); UPI (9.25); Monmouth (9.20); Reuters/Ipsos (9.22; via Pollster; 9.15); NBC/WSJ/Marist (9/08); Emerson (9/05); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (9/01; Pres Only); PPP (8/31).

VA: PPP (9.28); UPI (9.25); CNU (9.23); CBS/YouGov (9.23); Quinnipiac (9.21); Roanoke (9.20); Reuters/Ipsos (9.22; via Pollster; 9.15); Univ. of Mary Washington (9.12); PPP (9/11); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (9/01); Emerson (9/01); Hampton (8/28).

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