NV No Longer a Toss-Up (But Senate Is); UT Closes

The Model updates are headed West tonight, and both Utah and Nevada are showing some shifts:

Nevada:

President

Clinton 47.3% (+2.1%)

Trump 43.0% (-0.6%)

  • Moves from a “Toss-Up” to “Leans Clinton.”
  • The Models are certainly shifting here. Nevada has been a pretty blue state at the Presidential level over the last two cycles, and, as the race reaches its ending point, Clinton appears to be pulling away. The closest Likely Model band at this point has Trump down about 3% — all the other bands show a larger margin. That’s not indicative of a Toss-Up. Nevada thus seems to be defaulting back to its 2012-like ways. That pushes Clinton up to 278 EV’s in the Prediction Map without any Toss-Ups.

Senate

w/Fundamentals Band

Cortez Masto 45.6% (+1.0%)

Heck 44.9% (-0.3%)

w/o Fundamentals Band

Heck 44.7%

Cortez Masto 43.9%

  • Cortez Masto looks a little bit better here, but I honestly can’t tell you who is ahead. As you can see above, if Heck is able to maintain many of those crossover voters he has being doing decently well with all cycle, he could very well still pull this off. If Cortez Masto picks up some of that Dem tailwind with the remaining undecideds, she pulls ahead. But, each overall Model formula is within 1%. There is suddenly a lot of data noise here — so, I’m not sure if Heck’s status has really changed. He’s still up by as much as 3% in one of the Likely Model bands; Cortez Masto is up by a couple points in another. The point: whenever the Likely Model bands straddle both sides, historically, the races really have been close ’til the end. This remains a pure Toss-Up. 

Utah

Trump 32.2%

Clinton 26.0%

McMullin 24.8%

  • Frankly, who knows. Utah is not the type of state any of us track in a normal year. Throw in a very viable Independent candidate that has some hometown roots, and this is a Wild Card. I’m not seeing anything that makes me think Clinton is in a decent position to take this, even though the Model has McMullin trailing her. Take this top-line with a grain of salt, as the Model may very well climb again for McMullin if he gets one more data point like some of his most recent numbers.
  • The takeaway? Who knows here. I’m moving the contest from “Safe” to “Leans Trump,” but no one can tell you much more beyond that with much certainty. I’m certainly keeping an eye on it…

Polls in Current Models:

NV: LVRJ (10.23); KTNV/Rasmussen (10.22); Monmouth (10.17); CNN (10.15); CBS/YouGov (10.14); JMC Analytics (10.13); PPP (10.11); Emerson (10.04; via RCP); UNLV/Hart (10.02); LVRJ (9.29); Suffolk (9.29).

UT: Emerson (10.19); Utah Policy/Dan Jones (10.18); Rasmussen (10.16); CBS/YouGov (10.14); Monmouth (10.12); Y2 Analytics/Desert News (10.11); Salt Lake Tribune/Dan Jones (9.19).

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