New Hampshire narrows at the end; Sen/Gov tight too

Is there a chance for an upset in New Hampshire? It still looks unlikely, though it may be more possible than we thought a few weeks ago. The final Models:


Clinton 46.2% (-0.4%)

Trump 42.3% (+1.3%)

  • If New Hampshire embraces its unpredictable nature, there at least appears to be a possibility that a Trump upset could happen here. If — and that’s a huge if — he swept the other Toss-Up states, a New Hampshire victory could get him above 270. But that’s still an incredibly uphill climb and would require a clean sweep. But, New Hampshire does seem to at least be an upset possibility, even though it still seems unlikely.
  • Clinton has been ahead here all cycle. While NH voters are often unpredictable, it would still require a bit of a data shock, from my perspective, for a Trump victory to occur.
  • The Likely Model bands are more volatile, as they’re playing in the Clinton +1.5% to +4.5%. The overall formula is on the higher end of that, because of the fundamentals of the state. I’ll be curious to track this when it closes…


w/Fundamentals formula:

Hassan 47.4% (+0.2%)

Ayotte 47.0% (+0.7%)

w/o Fundamentals formula:

Ayotte 47.1%

Hassan 46.3%

  • It’s been like this all cycle. Senate control hangs in the balance. It ends a Toss-Up. It may be a long night here…


w/Fundamentals formula:

Van Ostern 46.3% (+0.1%)

Sununu 45.4% (+1.6%)

w/o Fundamentals formula:

Sununu 45.2%

Van Ostern 44.9%

  • See New Hampshire Senate. It ends as a Toss-Up as New Hampshire, with data points like these, is a pretty unpredictable state.

Polls in Current Models:

UNH (11.06); Emerson (11.05); Gravis (11.02); ARG (11.02); Suffolk (11.02); UMass Lowell (11.02); PPP (11.01); MassINC (11.01); UNH (10.30); Emerson (10.25); Monmouth (10.25); NBC/WSJ/Marist (10.24); UMass Amherst (10.21); Emerson (10.19); WMUR (10.17); WBUR (10.12); UMass Lowell (10.11).

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