When you’re a small state (in terms of population) without a competitive Presidential or Senatorial contest, you don’t get much polling in your Gov race. Enter: Montana.
Steve Bullock (D) won a narrow victory in 2012 in what was perhaps a slight upset, based on the late data in a red-leaning state. This year, he may be running a couple points ahead of where he was in 2012, but I don’t have clear enough data trends to be sure of that. Thus, I’m moving this into the Toss-Up category at the end of the cycle.
A Mason-Dixon poll back in early-to-mid October had Bullock up 2%; their final poll in 2012 had him down 3%, and he went on to win by a couple. I’m not a fan of the Survey Monkey tracking polls, but they have the race tied at 46%. But, just a few days ago, they had it Bullock +14%. So, it’s either indicative of a tightening, a bad poll…or both!
Barring some more data here, there’s enough volatility, coupled with the dynamics of the state, for this to warrant its Toss-Up status. If you were to push me, I’d say Bullock still has a decent chance of holding onto his position, but it’s not a clear bet.
This is one I’ll be watching Tuesday night.