Mon. Model Updates: GA, NH, NV, MO, and AZ

Credit: Tom Arthur

Happy Monday! Some small shifts to some of the Presidential contests today, but most of the movement is at the Senate level. Today’s batch of updates include all the recent NBC/WSJ/Marist polls, as well as Missouri. Let’s jump to it:

() = change from last Model

Georgia:

Trump 45.1% (–)

Clinton 42.0% (-0.5%)

  • Moves from “Toss-Up” back to “Leans Trump”
  • This one essentially keeps hovering that “Toss-Up”/”Leans Trump” line. Today, it jostles back to “Leans Trump,” but the race remains quite close. Trump is up 2-4% in all the Likely Model bands. That’s awfully close for Georgia, but he’s still favored in the data. Historically, the state breaks Red as contests reach their end, but we’ll see where the data trend here.

New Hampshire:

President:

Clinton 45.1% (-0.7%)

Trump 38.2% (-0.1%)

  • This one is still slowly narrowing, but again, Clinton’s lead has been rather sturdy for quite some time here. The Model is currently scoffing a bit at the NBC/WSJ/Marist number, but we’ll have to watch if it’s the beginning of a trend. As it stands, this one is still holding as “Likely Clinton,” especially because Trump is still stuck below 40%.

Senate:

Hassan 46.6% (-0.2%)

Ayotte 45.4% (+1.0%)

  • Now, this one is getting interesting. That NBC/WSJ/Marist poll has Ayotte now way ahead. Again, the Models are scoffing – a bit – BUT, the trends in NH Senate are clear: Ayotte’s data points have gotten better by the week as of late. A 1.2% net margin in a single Model update is actually something to take note of, especially because Ayotte keeps gaining – rather quickly – with each pivot of the Model. In other words, she may take the lead in the next Model update or two if these trends continue. As of now, there are a lot of data out there that are still good for Hassan, but Ayotte’s gains have been sure and steady. This is a race to watch, for sure.

Nevada:

President:

Clinton 43.9% (-0.8%)

Trump 41.6% (–)

  • This race is staying pretty stable. Trump is over performing a bit here as this one normally breaks bluer. But, it’s more about Clinton’s number also being low than Trump’s number being high. Nevada has a lot of Johnson voters. The Model essentially reassigns many of them, but both candidates are still far from 50%. That’s keeping it competitive. So, we’ll have to see whether it takes that blue turn, as it normally does.

Senate:

Heck 42.8% (-0.2%)

Cortez Masto 42.3% (+0.8%)

  • This is more of data noise than a clear trend. The fundamentals of the state are pulling this a bit toward Cortez Masto in this top line, but Heck is still up 2-3% in many of the “Likely” bands. If the state breaks blue – again, as it historically does – it’ll end up closer to this pure tie. If Heck is able to trump those dynamics a bit, and that break doesn’t happen, he may be up a narrow but very real couple of points. Again, both candidates have a lot of room to grow.

Arizona:

President:

Trump 44.7% (-0.7%)

Clinton 41.1% (–)

  • No major changes here, but Trump is still having a hard time climbing much above the mid-40s. Clinton’s upset path is still difficult here as she’s stuck in the low 40s in a Red state — though, not it’s impossible.

Senate:

McCain 49.0% (+2.9%)

Kirkpatrick 40.0% (-0.5%)

  • This one is breaking open as the race is solidifying behind McCain, post-primary. McCain up nearly 20% in the latest poll? Could that be? It’s certainly on the high end, but a 3.4% net change in a Model update is huge and normally indicative of a race that is fundamentally changing. Double-digits are now certainly a data possibility, and the two most reputable/non-partisan polls in the state are showing such a dynamic. (Arizona often has a lack of good data).
  • Hence, this race moves to “Likely McCain,” and it may even trend to “Safe McCain” if these data points continue.

Missouri:

President:

Trump 46.2% (-0.4%)

Clinton 40.7% (-0.9%)

  • Trump is still above 46% in a pretty Red state, and Clinton’s stuck in the low-40s. This one is still worth watching, but Georgia and Arizona still look like her better upset possibilities.

Senate:

Blunt 48.0% (+0.5%)

Kander 41.7% (-0.7%)

  • See above. A momentary blip, or are Republicans coming home here a bit? As such, I’m moving it back to “Likely GOP.”

Governor:

Koster 45.3%

Greitens 42.1%

  • This is actually the first Model here, though I’d take it with a BIG grain of salt as there’s not much data. The Model is pulling things closer than many polls, but that’s because of the fundamentals of the state, the consolidation of crossover voters, and some other underlying dynamics. But, Koster certainly seems to be Dems’ best chance here. It still “Leans Koster,” but I’d LOVE some more reputable data.

Polls in Current Models:

NH: NBC/WSJ/Marist (9/08); Emerson (9/05); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (9/01; Pres Only); PPP (8/318/28; 8/07); UNH/WMUR (8/28); CBS/YouGov (8/12); VoxPopuli (8/08).

GA: NBC/WSJ/Marist (9/08); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (Pres Only; 9/01); Opinion Savvy (08/17); CBS (8/12); Gravis (8/08, via Pollster); AJC (8/04); Landmark (8/01).

MO: Remington (9/02); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (9/01); PPP (8/27); Monmouth (8/22); PPP (8/09; Pres. Only); Remington (08/06); Mason-Dixon (7/24).

NV: NBC/WSJ/Marist (9/08); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (9/01; Pres Only); Suffolk (8/17); CBS/YouGov (8/05; Pres Only); Rasmussen (7/31).

AZ: NBC/WSJ/Marist (9/08); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (Pres Only; 9/01); AZ Republic (Pres. Only; 8/31); PPP (8/28); Gravis (Pres. Only;8/27); OH Predictive Insights (Pres Only; 8/27) CNN (8/23); CBS/YouGov (Pres Only;8/05) PPP (Sen Only; 6/23); GQR (Sen Only; 6.20; via Pollster); BRC (Sen Only; 6.19).

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