MO and IN President seem clear; Senate and Gov? Not so much.

All politics are local. At least in states like Missouri and Indiana.

Tonight, at the Presidential level, I’m moving Indiana and Missouri to Safe Trump. Both red-leaning states seem to clearly be breaking back toward the Republican candidate at the end of the race. These two states are now nearing or above double-digit margins in the Presidential Models.

So, I’ll focus on the Senate and Gov races here, which are much closer:

Indiana Senate


w/o Fundamentals formula: 

Bayh 46.2%

Young 44.0%

w/Fundamentals formula:

Young 46.0% (+1.5%)

Bayh 45.8% (+0.9%)

  • This one is anyone’s guess. It certainly is a Toss-Up. Bayh is still up 1-3% in all of the Likely Model bands, but Young pulls ahead when I apply the Fundamentals formula. But, both are below 50% with just days to go before the election. That makes things still up in the air.
  • Young has been climbing throughout October as Bayh has been falling. Part of this is Republican-leaning voters coming home to a Republican in a Republican-leaning state. The other part has been the continuing negative press on Evan Bayh, who has been portrayed as being a Washington insider who has strayed from his Indiana roots. This is the, “they’re basically residents of Northern Virginia/D.C.-effect.” Showing how this message often works and is a non-partisan attack, this is also what has been impacting Roy Blunt (below). Young has arguably not been the strongest candidate either, keeping this one close as many dynamics are washing each other out.
  • Simply, this is one of the many Senate races on Tuesday night that might keep us up late as we try to figure out which party will control the Senate.

Indiana Gov

Gregg 45.4% (-0.3%)

Holcomb 43.4% (+0.6%)

  • Like the other contests in the state, the Republican here appears to be closing a bit as Republicans come home to their candidate in a red state. So, this one is also ending as a Toss-Up.
  • That said, of the Democrats in the state, Gregg has certainly appeared to be performing the strongest throughout much of the cycle. He’s still up 3-6% in the Likely Model bands, but the Fundamentals formula pulls this within a couple points.

Missouri Senate

Blunt 47.6% (+0.3%)

Kander 44.6% (+0.9%)

  • Kander has been closing with every Model update as of late. The question is: will that momentum carry through to an upset victory? As it stands, this one is a Toss-Up. The good news for Democrats is that all of the Likely Model bands actually have this closer, all of them playing in the Blunt +1-2% range. It’s the Fundamentals formula that breaks this just a bit more toward Blunt, as many of these remaining voters are GOP-leaning. Thus, we have two different dynamics…
  • Kander can win if he’s able to couple his closing momentum with a decent number of crossover voters. He needs folks that are voting for Trump for President to also vote for him. Or, he needs Trump voters to skip the Senate line. He’s already doing that, but he still likely needs more of these voters.
  • Blunt will win if these voters end up filling in another Republican bubble down ballot.
  • Add this to the list of close Senate races that may keep us up late Tuesday.

Missouri Gov

w/o Fundamentals formula

Koster 46.4% (+0.1%)

Greitens 44.5% (+0.2%)

w/Fundamentals formula

Greitens 46.4%

Koster 46.0%

  • This one is the inverse of the Senate race in that Koster has been ahead all cycle, but Greitens has been closing throughout October.
  • If Koster is able to get crossovers, as he has been doing all cycle in the data, he’ll be able to pull this out and trump some of the state’s fundamental dynamics. If these remaining voters select Trump, Blunt and then Greitens, then a path for Greitens appears. Again, two competing dynamics. This one might be another late one Tuesday. It’s a Toss-Up.

Polls in Current Models:

IN: Howey (11.03); Monmouth (11.30); Gravis (11.0110.24; via RCP); WISH/Ball State (10.16); Monmouth (10.13); Howey (10.05).

MO: PPP (11.02); Remington (11.01); DHM (11.01); Emerson (10.31); Monmouth (10.31); St. Louis Post-Dispatch (10.26); Remington (10.25); Emerson (10.19); Monmouth (10.11); Remington (10.05).

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