MN ends as Likely Clinton; MO Sen as close as it’s ever been

To keep the updates rolling tonight, I’m writing efficiently…


Clinton 47.6% (+1.2%)

Trump 40.5% (+0.4%)

  • There haven’t been any meaningful data in the last week to see if there are any late-breaking dynamics, other than internet polls. Even in those, there’s been no sense this is tightening. To me, that seems important because the internet polls are the ones that are most showing that potential closing in Michigan. Therefore, there’s nothing that implies to me this one’s really in play.
  • It ends as Likely Clinton.

Missouri Senate

Blunt 47.5% (-0.1%)

Kander 44.7% (+0.1%)

  • Just a brief note: though only two-tenths closer than it was a couple days ago, that’s been the trend all month — a very slow but constant tightening.
  • The bigger note: above is the fundamentals formula, which still gives Blunt a few more points in a red-leaning state. If Kander can overcome some of the fundamental dynamics of the state (which sometimes happens in Senate races), he’s within 0.5% to 2.0% in the Likely Model bands. This one could be a long night, if so…
  • It’s ending as a Toss-Up

Polls in Current Models:

MN: SurveyUSA (10.26); Star-Tribune (10.22); Gravis (9.23); SurveyUSA (9.20); Mason-Dixon (9.14).

MO: Emerson (11.04); PPP (11.02); Remington (11.01); DHM (11.01); Emerson (10.31); Monmouth (10.31); St. Louis Post-Dispatch (10.26); Remington (10.25); Emerson (10.19); Monmouth (10.11); Remington (10.05).

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