Michigan and New Mexico: it’d take quite the data surprise

Credit: Tom Arthur

Michigan Model

Clinton 46.3% (+0.7%)

Trump 40.7% (+3.2%)

  • Is Michigan in play? Boy, it’s tough for me to find any data argument that says yes. I do have it moving from Likely Clinton to Leans Clinton at the end, as Trump climbs above 40% and Clinton remains in the mid-40s. But there’s simply nothing in the data to imply Trump’s in a position to actually win here.
  • For Trump to win Michigan, he’d likely need to win Ohio by 5%+. Now, if early in the night, it’s looking like Ohio might go to Trump by such a margin (which is by no means a given or likely), Michigan may become more interesting. But, even then, he’d still likely come up short, unless he was able to pull some local dynamics that are pretty unique to the state. There’s no reason to expect that.
  • As it stands, it’d essentially take a data shock — a la the 2016 Michigan Dem primary — for that to happen. Since we’re in the Leans category, crazier things have happened, but I’m still not seeing it. Trump and Pence are now ending their campaign late tomorrow night in Grand Rapids, and the Clinton campaign actions imply this one may be tighter than normal, especially if African American turnout is down in the Southeastern part of the state…
  • …but, in short, while I think this one might be more competitive than normal, it’d take quite the unexpected wave for this one to actually go red.

Notes on New Mexico

  • There’s not enough good data to properly Model here. If you’re curious, I have some rough Likely Model bands playing in the Clinton +6-9% range.
  • As Johnson (L) has faded in his home state, that’s benefited both Trump and Clinton a bit — and the recent actions of both campaigns imply this one might indeed also be closer than normal. But, again, a Trump upset would be a pretty big upset, based on what we know. In other words, there’s nothing in the data to show it.
  • I’m categorizing this as Likely Clinton.

Polls in Current Model:

Michigan: PPP (11.04); EPIC (11.03); Mitchell (11.03; 11.02; via RCP; 11.01; 10.31; 10.30); Emerson (10.26); Mitchell (10.25); Detroit Free Press (10.25); Mitchell (10.23; via RCP); MRG (10.19); Mitchell (10.18; via RCP); Mitchell (10.11; via RCP); Detroit News (10.11).

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