Maine CD-2, Nebraska CD-2…a few notes

Credit: Tom Arthur

Maine CD-2

Could Maine’s 2nd Congressional District — which is a largely rural, Northern part of the state — actually go red? I think it’s still up in the air. There’s not enough data here at the close to properly give you a Model. Throughout the cycle, there have been some good data points for Trump here, but there’s been an almost unanimous closing in the few polls that do exist over the last few months. They’re basically all showing a Toss-Up in the District, but there’s a lot of volatility. When you zoom out to the state-level data, you see a similar picture when you extrapolate.

Overall, this one is clearly straddling the Toss-Up region. Will the EV matter? Possible, but that’d take the perfect storm that doesn’t make much sense in the current map to make it worth much time tonight to discuss…

Nebraska CD-2

…thus, briefly…

Talk about a lack of data. The few data points we have here are mostly extrapolations from statewide data — which aren’t great in themselves. Romney won the Omaha-centered District by about 7%; Obama narrowly carried it in ’08. At the moment, it looks likely to be somewhere in-between. I currently expect something like mid-single digits. Neither campaign has really focused much time here, which tends to be a bit of a tell. A Clinton upset is certainly still possible, but I’m keeping it at Leans Trump, based on the data I have.

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