There aren’t too many changes out of the CO, VA or IN Model updates tonight…except Indiana Senate. I’m going to get straight to the numbers and keep my analysis short tonight so I can get up each of these Models:
Clinton 45.8% (+0.3%)
Trump 40.3% (-0.6%)
- After a tightening in September, the CO Model is still settling back into a mid-single digit lead for Clinton. Her climb certainly seems to be stalling out a bit in the Model, but the Model’s also reluctant to find any closing for Trump. With only a week to go, it still has Clinton stuck in the mid-40s, which keeps it tighter, but Trump is still just above 40% in a blue-leaning state. While I’m not thrilled with the volume and quality of the data in the state, and while polls like the CBS/YouGov poll — which has it at a 3% margin — still grab my attention a bit, there’s simply nothing in the data that indicate to me Trump is ahead by any means. Most of the Model likely bands are indeed pretty close to this 5-6% margin range. As such, it stays Leans Clinton.
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Clinton 39.2% (+0.2%)
- At the bell, Trump seems to be stabilizing his lead here. While Obama took this state by storm in ’08, it remains a pretty red state at the Presidential level. This is actually one of the few states where Trump is outperforming local Republicans on the ballot. It’s holding as Likely Trump.
Bayh 44.9% (-1.8%)
Young 44.5% (+2.2%)
- This is perhaps the biggest news of the night. As we get closer to the election, we’re getting more Toss-Ups in the Senate, not fewer. And, they’re not all moving in the same direction. Meaning, Missouri moved from Leans GOP to a Toss-Up while Indiana moves from Leans Dem to a Toss-Up. Bayh has been ahead most of the cycle, but he’s struggled as of late with issues of residency and being perceived as a “Washington-type.” That’s actually the same climate that’s giving Democrat Jason Kander a chance in Missouri as Republican Roy Blunt struggles with the Washington label himself in a year when the electorate is still not happy with the current course of direction, especially in Congress. This one may keep us up late night next week. Senate control certainly hangs in the balance.
Gregg 45.7% (-0.4%)
Holcomb 42.8% (+3.9%)
- This one is tightening as Republicans come home in a red-leaning state, but Gregg still appears to be ahead. I’m keeping it as Leans Dem, though it is certainly worth watching.
Clinton 47.3% (+1.2%)
Trump 39.8% (-0.1%)
- Still not much to see here. I’m keeping it Likely Clinton.
Polls in Current Models: