Georgia and Iowa end as Leans Trump

Source: per OTRS


Trump 49.2% (+2.2%)

Clinton 44.7% (+1.3%)

  • It’s perhaps no surprise that Georgia is ending as a Leans Trump state. That said, it’s closer than normal for a Presidential year. This is reflecting more of a 2008 margin when the Obama campaign spent a decent amount of resources here and won by about 7% nationally.
  • The non-fundamentals Likely Model bands are playing pretty close, in the Trump +3-5% range. In a Clinton wave, she could still upset here — it’s just not likely. The best tell to me is that, while Clinton went to Arizona this week, she’s never made as much of a push in Georgia, and her campaign has said Georgia was more of the stretch of the two. African Americans have been down in turnout this cycle, and it’d be essentially impossible for Clinton to win here, unless there was an election day surge. Increased Latino turnout may surely help here, but it still looks like she needs a bump of some kind, or some other unexpected dynamic.
  • That said, Georgia is getting close to being a Purple State; I just don’t think it’s quite there yet.


Trump 45.0% (-0.8%)

Clinton 41.5% (-0.4%)

  • I’m not a fan of the Iowa data. (That’s worth of an entire bullet point).
  • Despite their primary miss, the DMR is still pretty darn good in the general election. Much of the data pretty closely mirror the polling data from the 2014 Senate race. Then, most had it within 0-7%; Ernst was above the high-end of that. Now, this is certainly not 2014, but it’d take quite the statistical upset for the DMR’s Trump +7% to somehow turn into a Clinton victory, even if it ends up closer than that.
  • The Model bands still have this decently close, playing in the Trump +2-5% range. If Iowa Dem-leaning voters come home, this might be a long night, but these data imply to me that it’d be a pretty big upset if Clinton actually wins here (even though I think there’s a good chance it’s closer than that DMR poll). Then again, I had this closer in the 2014 Senate race (had it as a Toss-Up), and it broke pretty red. Overall, it thus still looks like a narrow to mid-digit Trump victory here. But, again…would it have hurt other reputable pollsters to sample here?

Polls in Current Models:

GA: Landmark (11.03; via Pollster); Opinion Savvy (11.03); NBC/WSJ/Marist (11.01); SurveyUSA (10.27); Quinnipiac (10.26); Landmark (10.20; via RCP); Opinion Savvy (10.20); AJC (10.20); Landmark (10.12).

IA: DMR (11.04); Emerson (11.03; via RCP); RABA (11.02); Quinnipiac (10.26); DMR (10.06); Quinnipiac (9.21); Monmouth (9/14).

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