Fri. Model Updates: NC, NV, and IA Holding as Toss-Ups

All of the Models continue moving ever so slightly toward Donald Trump today, but North Carolina, Nevada and Iowa are all holding in the Toss-Up category. As I’ve got a slew of new data to update in many other states, let’s get straight to the Models and some efficient analysis:

North Carolina:

President:

Trump 44.6% (+0.8%)

Clinton 44.4% (-0.1%)

  • Talk about a squeaker. Both candidates are now in the mid-40s, but neither is making a mad dash to the upper-40s yet, keeping the race in play. I’m often asked: Could Trump win Ohio and Iowa and lose North Carolina. The answer is absolutely yes. Though NC trends redder than the other two, its dynamics continue to change very quickly, a la Virginia. Clinton can win here if she turns out African Americans and Latinos, as well as Orange County (Chapel Hill). But, Obama’s on the ground operation was simply stellar in NC, and he still lost in 2012. It wasn’t long ago (2004) that North Carolina wasn’t even a competitive state. If it splits the difference, the GOP is still slightly favored. But offsetting that is the fact that the local GOP is quite unpopular, thanks to one party rule and the attention placed upon the state because of HB2 (among other issues). All politics really are local, and that benefits Dems a bit this cycle. That said, Trump is rising here faster than Clinton as of late, giving him a ‘tiny’ lead today (though not statistically significant). There’s a reason both campaigns keep coming here over and over again. That said, Trump needs it to get to 270. Clinton doesn’t.

Governor:

Cooper 50.0% (+0.2%)

McCrory 45.7% (+0.5%)

  • McCrory stabilizes a bit here, but the race remains “Leans Dem,” especially as Cooper hits 50% in the Model. Both sides are dug in here in a highly partisan contest, but McCrory still has a very tough climb with NC absentee ballots already being sent out.

Nevada:

President:

Clinton 44.9% (+0.1%)

Trump 42.4% (+0.5%)

  • Like Florida, Trump is slowly making this state more competitive by the week, but of all the current Toss-Ups, Clinton’s best chance is still in a state that voted for Obama twice — by healthy margins.

Senate:

Heck 43.8% (+1.5%)

Cortez Masto 43.8% (+0.7%)

  • Another squeaker! Of all the GOP candidates, Heck is still the best situated to pick-up a Dem seat. Cortez Masto is holding her own, and she pulls it to a tie because of the fundamentals of the state. But this race is tight.

Iowa:

President: 

Trump 43.1% (+1.2%)

Clinton 42.6% (+0.2%)

  • Trump is getting a big bounce here with today’s Model update. If trends continue, his lead may continue climbing here, but a 1.2% gain in a single update is still rather large. That said, neither candidate is even into the mid-40s, so Clinton is still very much in the running. But, of the Toss-Ups, Trump is starting to look strongest here.

Polls In Current Models:

NC: Civitas (9.12); Quinnipiac (09/07); Suffolk (09/07); CBS/YouGov (9/02; Pres Only); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (9/01); Emerson (8/29); PPP (8/27); Monmouth (8.23); CNN (8.23); Gravis (Pres; 8.17).

NV: Monmouth (9/13); NBC/WSJ/Marist (9/08); PPP (9/07); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (9/01; Pres Only); Suffolk (8/17).

IA: Monmouth (9/14); Raba/Simpson (9/08); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (9/01); Emerson (9/01); PPP (8/31); CBS/YouGov (8/19); Quinnipiac (8/17).

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