Florida Models end pretty tight

Credit: Tom Arthur

Florida, Florida Florida. Since 2000, it’s always been within about 5%, one way or the other. It looks like there’s a good chance that’ll continue tomorrow…



Clinton 47.4% (+0.1%)

Trump 46.1% (+1.3%)

  • This one is ending a bit closer than it appeared a week ago. Both candidates have a pretty dug-in base, not a surprise in highly-partisan Florida. This race ends as a Toss-Up. The Likely Model bands are now playing in the Tie to Clinton +2% range. They’re pretty tight and pretty consistent.
  • Dems will win if they can keep turnout high in places like Miami-Dade tomorrow. If African American turnout ebbs versus 2012, they’d need that big turnout among Latinos to offset it. Also keep track of turnout and margins in Orange County, Broward, and Palm Beach. The other key turf is the Tampa-St. Pete metro area; it’s more of a bellwether area.
  • Meanwhile, Trump needs huge margins and turnout in the Panhandle. Places like Bay and Santa Rosa need to come out big for him if he’s to have a chance.
  • If you pushed me, I’d thus say Clinton is slightly favored, but I use the term Toss-Up for a reason…because both candidates are within data range of a possible victory.


Rubio 49.0% (+1.1%)

Murphy 45.9% (+1.2%)

  • This one is ending tight, but I’d still consider it a Leans Rubio race at the end…but just barely. Rubio does better in the non-fundamentals Likely Model bands, which still have him up 3 to 5.5%, depending on the band. Murphy’s deficit tightens in the Fundamentals formula, as the Model pushes more Dem voters into his camp that remain unassigned in some of the polls. But Rubio is already at 50% in two of the Model bands; hence my keeping the Leans rating at the end.
  • If there’s a Dem wave tomorrow, Murphy could still upset, but it’d likely take such a wave.

Polls in Current Model: Quinnipiac (11.06); Trafalgar (11.06; via RCP); Opinion Savvy (11.06); CBS/YouGov (11.04); Remington (11.02; via Pollster); Opinion Savvy (11.02); CNN (11.01); Quinnipiac (11.01); Gravis (10.31; via RCP); Trafalgar (10.31); Remington (10.30; via RCP); NYT (10.27); Emerson (10.27); NBC/WSJ/Marist (10.26); Dixie (10.26); Gravis (10.26); UNF (10.25); Bloomberg (10.24); SurveyUSA (10.24); FAU (10.23); Remington (10.22; via RCP); CBS/YouGov (10.21); Opinion Savvy (10.20); Florida Chamber (10.19); Quinnipiac (10.16); WaPo/SurveyMonkey (10.16); PPP (10.13); Opinion Savvy (10.11).


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