I feel like a robot, but there are few significant changes to the Models tonight. With the amount of data out of FL and NC in particular, that’s not a surprise as the Models are not built to change on a whim. Instead, they collect a lot of data and assume races are generally more stable than they are volatile. All of these races appear to remain very close, but Clinton is gaining a few tenths in each of these tonight. Such is indeed a trend. Of course, Trump needs all three of these. And, while he’s very close in all of them, he’s not favored in any of them at the moment. A point or two shift, and that would different, but a point or two shift further toward Clinton, and it’d be an even tougher climb for him. Beyond that, I’m keeping analysis brief tonight to get straight to the data. Also, updates from NC Gov, NC Sen and FL Sen below.
That said — I hope everyone in FL, GA and SC stay safe over the next few days.
The Model updates:
Clinton 46.1% (+0.1%)
Trump 45.1% (-0.5%)
- Clinton’s “lead” — though it remains a statistical tie — continues to inch up here. Florida remains a polarized state, so both candidates are still above 45% in the Model. Both will fight for this turf ’til the end.
Rubio 48.3% (+0.3%)
Murphy 43.4% (+0.2%)
- This one has been stable as “Leans Rubio” for quite some time. The Model formula w/the Fundamentals band continues to keep it a bit closer, as Rubio’s lead is still just above 6% if Murphy doesn’t pull in some of those Dem-leaning undecideds.
Clinton 45.1% (+1.0%)
Trump 43.6% (+0.6%)
- Both candidates are starting to consolidate some of the 3rd Party vote, though Clinton’s netting another few tenths here again tonight. That said, Trump’s within 0.1% — i.e., a tie — in the formula without the Fundamentals break — which favors Clinton here. If Trump does a bit better than expected in rural/Northern Nevada or if Clinton’s turnout isn’t quite as strong in Vegas as expected, he’d be very much in play.
Heck 45.2% (+0.8%)
Cortez Masto 44.6% (+1.2%)
- No major changes here. This race tightens with the Fundamentals formula; Heck’s up over 2% without that historic break. Heck continues to run about 2% better than Trump here margin-wise.
Clinton 45.1% (+0.8%)
Trump 44.9% (+0.1%)
- The squeaker continues, though Clinton’s got more movement going on. A pretty dug-in state with both candidates at 45% or so, but neither is really breaking into the upper-40s yet. Until then, I still think this one is quite volatile.
Burr 45.3% (+0.3%)
Ross 44.8% (+0.2%)
- Yet another very stable, and hotly contested, Senate race. Simply put, Ross really is in play here.
Cooper 48.0% (+0.4%)
McCrory 46.0% (+0.2%)
- The Gov race is quite stable this week. Of the Dems, it still looks like Cooper has the best odds. He’s still hitting 50% in some of the upper bands, and McCrory remains stuck in the mid-40s in many bands. But it is indeed close — and the data are especially noisy in this one.
- I’ll have a lot more on NC — as far as dynamics on the ground, etc. — in a commentary piece this weekend.
Polls in Current Models:
FL: Emerson (10.04; via RCP); UNF (10.04); Quinnipiac (10.02); Opinion Savvy (9.28); Mason-Dixon (9.29; via RCP); PPP (9.28); UPI (10.02; 9.25); Suffolk (9.21); FL Chamber (9.20); Monmouth (9.19); St. Leo (9.16); Ipsos/Reuters (9.22; 9.15, via Pollster); NYTimes/Siena (9.14). CNN (9/12); JMC Analytics(R) (via RCP; 9/08); CBS/YouGov (9/09); PPP (09/06).
NV: Emerson (10.04; via RCP); UNLV/Hart (10.02); LVRJ (9.29); Suffolk (9.29); UPI (10.02; 9.25); Fox News (9.20); Rasmussen (9.18); Reuters/Ipsos (9.22; via Pollster; 9.15);Insights West (9.14); Monmouth (9/13); NBC/WSJ/Marist (9/08); PPP (9/07).
NC: WRAL/SurveyUSA (10.03); Bloomberg (10.2); Quinnipiac (10.2); Elon (9.30); PPP (9.28); UPI (10.02; 9.25); Meredith College (9.22); HPU (9.22); Fox News (9.20); PPP (9.20); Siena/NYT (9.19); Elon (9.16); Ipsos/Reuters (9.29; 9.22 – via Pollster; 9.15); Civitas (9.12); Quinnipiac (09/07); Suffolk (09.07).