Final PA Model ends as Leans Clinton; Senate a Toss-Up

Photo Source: Jschnalzer

Finally, the last Models. I’m going to keep this short so I can get to some final analysis that’ll include things to look for each hour tonight.



Clinton 48.5% (+0.7%)

Trump 43.7% (+1.8%)

  • This one is ending as Leans Clinton.
  • As much as Pennsylvania changes, it seems to stay the same. As certain demographics come and go from the state, the overall fundamentals of the state are a thin, but consistent, blue wall at the Presidential level. Everything else has been said at this point. If Trump is to somehow upset here, he’d need absolutely huge turnout in Central PA and do better than expected in the Philly burbs, coupled with lower-than-expected turnout in Philly itself. It’s not likely, but we’ll know in a few hours for sure…


McGinty 47.4% (+1.1%)

Toomey 44.8% (+0.2%)

  • This one ends as a Toss-Up. McGinty has been consistently ahead by a couple points in the Model since summer. That said, the Model’s never shown her tracking as high as Clinton. If Trump gets within something like 2-4%, Toomey could still upset here, but you’d rather be the McGinty camp going into tonight, based on the data.

Polls in Current Models:

MC (11.04); Monmouth (11.01); PPP (11.01); Remington (11.02; via HuffPo); Susq (11.01); CNN (11.01); Quinnipiac (11.01); F&M (10.30); Harper (11.03); Gravis (11.06; 11.0210.30; via RCP); CBS (10.28); Morning Call (10.26); NYT (10.25); Remington (10.23; via HuffPo); Emerson (10.2610.19); Quinnipiac (10.16); Bloomberg (10.11); Susquehanna (10.09); CBS/YouGov (10.07); NBC/WSJ/Marist (10.06).

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