Electoral Forecast

Last Updated: 11/05

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.2% – Romney: 48.5%

Overall 2012 Electoral Prediction: Obama 303 - Romney: 235

Obama Lean, Likely, Safe: 281

Romney Lean, Likely, Safe: 191

Toss-Up: 66

Note: States with a () with a numeric % shows the model’s current projection of Obama’s margin in the state, a (+) margin how far he’s ahead, a (-) margin for how far he’s behind.

Safe Obama (201)

CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA

Likely Obama (46)

MI (+7.2%)

PA (+5.7%)

WI (+5.0%)

Leans Obama (34)

IA (+2.5%)

NH (+2.8%)

NV (+4.4%)

OH (+2.8%)

Toss-Up (66)

CO (+2.1%)

FL (-0.2%) 

NC (-1.3%)

VA (+2.3%)

Leans Romney (0)

Likely Romney (11)

AZ (-6.3%)

Safe Romney (180)

AL, AK, AR, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

8 comments

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  7. The Romney Optimists: Could Mitt Still Win? : The New Yorker | Egypt says:
    November 6, 2012 at 8:06 am

    [...] Yglesias; the Huffpo’s Pollster tracking model; the Web site PredictWise, the consulting firm CabPolitical. Most other forecasts are grouped around the 303-235 projection. Early Tuesday morning, Nate [...]

  8. An Open Letter to Fox News Viewers/Readers « Vote Max Gross says:
    November 7, 2012 at 8:01 pm

    [...] Yglesias; the Huffpo’s Pollster tracking model; the Web site PredictWise, the consulting firm CabPolitical. Most other forecasts are grouped around the 303-235 projection. Early Tuesday morning, Nate [...]

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