AZ & CO likely close, but neither really a Toss-Up

Source: ErgoSum88

I’m still not thrilled with the data quality out of Arizona and Colorado, but there do appear to be some decently clear trends. The (likely) final Models:


Trump 46.4% (+1.1%)

Clinton 43.0% (-0.6%)

  • Trump seems to be bouncing back here at the close as Republicans appear to be coming home in a state that is still GOP-leaning. It looks like this one will be closer than it was in 2012, and a Clinton upset is still possible. But, with the current data, I’m moving this from a Toss-Up back to Leans Trump.
  • Trump’s lead in the closing Likely Model bands is a bit closer than the fundamentals formula above. If some GOP voters don’t come home to him in the final 48 hours, the non-fundamentals Likely Model bands are all playing in the Trump +1 to +3% range (he’s at +1.9% overall in this formula). That’d be awfully close, but it’d still be quite a statistical upset for Clinton to win.
  • Trump’s lead expands when applying the Fundamentals formula. Additionally, the closing tailwind seems to be at his back a bit here, based on the GOP-friendly nature of the state. Hence, the closing change.


Clinton 45.7% (-0.1%)

Trump 41.1% (+0.8%)

  • This one is a tad closer than it was a week ago, but not dramatically so. This one is going to end as Leans Clinton. Again, that means it’s within range for a possible upset — in this case, Donald Trump’s — but it’s just not very likely.
  • The data volatility here is still a bit high — the non-fundamentals Likely Model bands are playing in the Clinton +2% to +6% range (she’s at +4.4% overall in this formula). The former is within the Toss-Up range, but, again, the overall trend clearly favors Clinton.
  • This is a tough get for Trump, and without it, he essentially has no margin of error Tuesday night as he’d have to win all of the current Toss-Ups, plus a state that still is listed as Leans Clinton (at the time of this writing).

Polls in Current Models:

AZ: NBC/WSJ/Marist (11.01); CNN (11.01); Emerson (10.31); CBS/YouGov (10.28); Monmouth (10.24); Data Orbital (11.02; 10.30; 10.2710.18); AZ Republic (10.15); Highground (10.14); Data Orbital (10.12); Emerson (10.04).

CO: PPP (11.04); Keating (11.03); Trafalgar (11.03; via RCP); Magellan (11.02); Gravis (11.02); Univ. of Denver (10.31); Emerson (10.31); Remington (10.30; 10.22; via RCP); CBS/YouGov (10.28); Quinnipiac (10.16); Gravis (10.13); Magellan (10.13); Gravis (10.04).

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