All North Carolina contests end as Toss-Ups

The entire cycle, the North Carolina contests have been relatively close. The final Models end just as close. Frankly, I think these are some of the toughest contests to call. I’ll have some more thoughts on North Carolina midday tomorrow, but for tonight, the final Models:


Clinton 46.7% (+0.2%)

Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)

  • My expert advice? We don’t know who is going to win North Carolina tomorrow. While there has been some polling this cycle swinging from Clinton +7% to Trump +7%, neither seemed to match reality on the ground here. We’ll find out tomorrow, but the Models have had this tight the entire cycle. Many of the last minute polls have come back in line with that expectation. This surely ends as a Toss-Up.
  • The early vote has good and bad news for both sides. Dems still have a big early vote lead, but it’s much smaller than it was in 2012 when Obama still fell short, following the election day vote that heavily favored Republicans. That said, I’m never one to over read early voting data either way. It might be a long night here….


Burr 47.6% (+0.8%)

Ross 45.9% (+1.0%)

  • Burr has been narrowly ahead all year. That’s generally a good sign for a candidate, but the data here are simply too close to be sure. This one’s been a Toss-Up for awhile, and it ends as a Toss-Up. If Dems get a bit of surge on election day, Burr’s seat could fall. If all goes as expected, he may pull out a small victory.


Cooper 48.9% (+0.7%)

McCrory 47.4% (+0.4%)

  • This is the inverse of the Senate race. Cooper has been narrowly ahead all cycle. But, this one too has been a Toss-Up for awhile. Again, if Dems get a decent turnout tomorrow, it’ll be hard for McCrory to come from behind. If Republican turnout continues to outpace 2012, McCrory may be able to hold onto his governorship after all.
  • All three races could swing either way…all the way until the end. We don’t call North Carolina a purple state for nothing.

Polls in Current Models:

NYT (11.06); Quinnipiac (11.06); Remington (11.02; via Pollster); Quinnipiac (11.01); PPP (11.01); SurveyUSA (10.31); Remington (10.30; via RCP); Emerson (10.27); NBC/WSJ/Marist (10.26); Quinnipiac (10.26); NYT (10.23); Monmouth (10.23); PPP (10.22); Civitas (10.17); SurveyUSA (10.16); CNN (10.15); NBC/WSJ/Marist (10.12); Suffolk (10.12); Emerson (10.12; via RCP); HPU (10.06).

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